Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with similar to 3 degrees C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2 degrees C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3 degrees C trajectory and warming of 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2 degrees C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5 degrees C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C in the United States.
1.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England 2.Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst Environm, Bristol BS5 9LT, Avon, England 3.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London WC1E 7HT, England 4.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Stat Methodol, London, England 5.Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98105 USA 6.Union Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA 02478 USA 7.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 8.Comm Climate Change, London SW1W 8NR, England 9.Univ Oxford, Oxford e Res Ctr, Dept Engn Sci, Oxford OX1 3QG, England 10.Northumbria Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England
Recommended Citation:
Lo, Y. T. Eunice,Mitchell, Daniel M.,Gasparrini, Antonio,et al. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities[J]. SCIENCE ADVANCES,2019-01-01,5(6)