globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10060321
WOS记录号: WOS:000473749900030
论文题名:
Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR
作者: Doutreloup, Sebastien1; Kittel, Christoph1; Wyard, Coraline2; Belleflamme, Alexandre3; Amory, Charles1; Erpicum, Michel1; Fettweis, Xavier1
通讯作者: Doutreloup, Sebastien
刊名: ATMOSPHERE
ISSN: 2073-4433
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: precipitation ; climate change ; regional modeling ; convective scheme ; Belgium
WOS关键词: SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; IMPACTS ; UNCERTAINTIES ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIO ; EUROPE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts-Miller-Janji scheme, the Kain-Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139010
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作者单位: 1.Univ Liege, Climatol Lab, Dept Geog, UR SPHERES, B-4000 Liege, Belgium
2.Inst Sci Serv Publ Wallonie, 200 Rue Chera, B-4000 Liege, Belgium
3.AGROPTIMIZE, 185 Ave Longwy, B-6700 Arlon, Belgium

Recommended Citation:
Doutreloup, Sebastien,Kittel, Christoph,Wyard, Coraline,et al. Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2019-01-01,10(6)
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