globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3573-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000469017000015
论文题名:
Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context
作者: Stevenson, Samantha1; Capotondi, Antonietta2; Fasullo, John1; Otto-Bliesner, Bette1
通讯作者: Stevenson, Samantha
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:12, 页码:7359-7374
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El Nino ; Southern oscillation ; Climate variability ; Climate modeling ; Tropical pacific ; Climate dynamics
WOS关键词: LAND-USE CHANGE ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE ; PACIFIC ; IMPACT ; OCEAN ; PROXY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Nino and La Nina events (ENSO diversity'), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850-2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Other forcings can also be quite important: land use changes amplify Eastern Pacific El Nino events via modulating zonal advective heating, and orbital forcing tends to preferentially terminate twentieth century Central Pacific El Nino events due to enhanced eastern Pacific cooling during boreal winter and spring. Our results indicate that multiple anthropogenic and natural forcings can have substantial impacts on ENSO diversity, and suggest that correctly representing the net ENSO diversity response to climate change will depend on the precise balance between all these influences.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139114
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
2.NOAA, Div Phys Sci, Boulder, CO USA

Recommended Citation:
Stevenson, Samantha,Capotondi, Antonietta,Fasullo, John,et al. Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(12):7359-7374
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