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New records for the adventive species Monoxia obesula Blake (Coleoptera Chrysomelidae Galerucinae) in the Mediterranean region are reported. An Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) analysis to estimate the potential distribution of this leaf beetle in the secondary range, through the assessment of the habitat suitability, was performed. The expected distribution, as predicted by the ENM analysis, is rather limited in the Mediterranean region, with high suitability areas only in southern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, southern peninsular Italy, Tunisia and Egypt. Nevertheless, the Ensemble Models for future climatic conditions predict an expansion from all the currently suitable territories of the Mediterranean region, especially in coastal areas.