globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-018-9641-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000474587200001
论文题名:
A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation
作者: Gonseth, Camille; Vielle, Marc
通讯作者: Vielle, Marc
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT
ISSN: 1420-2026
EISSN: 1573-2967
出版年: 2019
卷: 24, 期:3, 页码:265-277
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Winter tourism ; Adaptation ; Computable general equilibrium model ; Switzerland
WOS关键词: SNOW ; SNOWMAKING ; DEMAND ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from -23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139340
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, LEURE Lab, Swiss Fed Inst Technol Lausanne, BP Stn 16, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Gonseth, Camille,Vielle, Marc. A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT,2019-01-01,24(3):265-277
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