globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1111/anzs.12265
WOS记录号: WOS:000474265800004
论文题名:
Climate regime shift detection with a trans-dimensional, sequential Monte Carlo, variational Bayes method
作者: McGrory, Clare A.; Ahfock, Daniel C.; Lemos, Ricardo T.
通讯作者: McGrory, Clare A.
刊名: AUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS
ISSN: 1369-1473
EISSN: 1467-842X
出版年: 2019
卷: 61, 期:2, 页码:175-188
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index ; sequential Monte Carlo ; variational Bayes
WOS关键词: OSCILLATION ; INFERENCE
WOS学科分类: Statistics & Probability
WOS研究方向: Mathematics
英文摘要:

We present an application study which exemplifies a cutting edge statistical approach for detecting climate regime shifts. The algorithm uses Bayesian computational techniques that make time-efficient analysis of large volumes of climate data possible. Output includes probabilistic estimates of the number and duration of regimes, the number and probability distribution of hidden states, and the probability of a regime shift in any year of the time series. Analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is provided as an example. Two states are detected: one is associated with positive values of the PDO and presents lower interannual variability, while the other corresponds to negative values of the PDO and greater variability. We compare this approach with existing alternatives from the literature and highlight the potential for ours to unlock features hidden in climate data.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139384
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Univ Queensland, Ctr Applicat Nat Resource Math, Brisbane, Qld 4075, Australia

Recommended Citation:
McGrory, Clare A.,Ahfock, Daniel C.,Lemos, Ricardo T.. Climate regime shift detection with a trans-dimensional, sequential Monte Carlo, variational Bayes method[J]. AUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS,2019-01-01,61(2):175-188
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