globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1029/2018WR024067
WOS记录号: WOS:000477616900023
论文题名:
Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes Under Global Warming
作者: Papalexiou, Simon Michael1,2; Montanari, Alberto3
通讯作者: Papalexiou, Simon Michael
刊名: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN: 0043-1397
EISSN: 1944-7973
出版年: 2019
卷: 55, 期:6, 页码:4901-4914
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global precipitation extremes ; frequency changes ; regional and local increases ; stationarity
WOS关键词: MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TRENDS ; UNITED-STATES ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CLIMATE ; MAXIMUM ; FREQUENCY ; RAIN ; VARIABILITY ; INTENSITY ; WEATHER
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Global warming is expected to change the regime of extreme precipitation. Physical laws translate increasing atmospheric heat into increasing atmospheric water content that drives precipitation changes. Within the literature, general agreement is that extreme precipitation is changing, yet different assessment methods, data sets, and study periods may result in different patterns and rates of change. Here we perform a global analysis of 8,730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964-2013 period when the global warming accelerates. We introduce a novel analysis of the N largest extremes in records having N complete years within the study period. Based on these extremes, which represent more accurately heavy precipitation than annual maxima, we form time series of their annual frequency and mean annual magnitude. The analysis offers new insights and reveals (1) global and zonal increasing trends in the frequency of extremes that are highly unlikely under the assumption of stationarity and (2) magnitude changes that are not as evident. Frequency changes reveal a coherent spatial pattern with increasing trends being detected in large parts of Eurasia, North Australia, and the Midwestern United States. Globally, over the last decade of the studied period we find 7% more extreme events than the expected number. Finally, we report that changes in magnitude are not in general correlated with changes in frequency.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139386
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作者单位: 1.Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Civil Geol & Environm Engn, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
2.Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
3.Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Papalexiou, Simon Michael,Montanari, Alberto. Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes Under Global Warming[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019-01-01,55(6):4901-4914
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