全球变化知识资源中心

The aim of the study was to establish the strength and direction of the relationship between daily temperature of river water and air with the use of selected estimation methods. The relationship was assessed for the River Note and its tributaries (Western Poland), using the cross-correlation function and Granger causality. The study established cause-and-effect relations for water-air and air-water directions of influence. It was confirmed that forecasting the pattern of flowing water temperature from changes in air temperature yields better results when done based on data from the previous day. Results of modelling the relationship between data series with the use of the linear and natural cubic splines models confirmed the presence of a nonlinear relation. It was also established that there is a statistically significant correlation of random fluctuations for both temperature series on the same days. This made it possible to confirm the occurrence of short-term connections between water and air temperature. The results can be used to determine the qualities of thermal regimes and to predict temperature of river waters in the conditions of climate change.