globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1177/0958305X18802777
WOS记录号: WOS:000469840400006
论文题名:
Weather risk assessment of Indian power sector: A conditional value-at-risk approach
作者: Basu, Mahuya1; Chakraborty, Tanupa2
通讯作者: Chakraborty, Tanupa
刊名: ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0958-305X
EISSN: 2048-4070
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:4, 页码:641-661
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Risk assessment ; rainfall risk ; temperature risk ; Indian power sector ; value-at-risk ; conditional value-at-risk
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELECTRICITY DEMAND ; CONSUMPTION ; IMPACTS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

This paper aims to assess the weather risk exposure of Indian power sector from both generation and demand sides. The study considers two representative firms - firstly, Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC), a hydro-generator, to assess its rainfall exposure, and secondly, Calcutta Electric Supply Corporation (CESC), a retail power supplier, to assess the temperature sensitivity of power demand. The study opts for 'Value at Risk' approach, which combines both the sensitivity of power variables towards weather variable and the probability of weather change. The sensitivity is measured using regression analysis with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Parametric distributions are fitted to weather data to assess probabilities. Due to the 'fat-tail' characteristic of the fitted distribution, a 'conditional value-at-risk' model is considered more effective. The study reveals that the hydroelectricity generation is highly exposed to monsoon rainfall fluctuation and hence the hydro-generator may experience substantial loss of revenue due to insufficient monsoon, whereas the revenue of retail power distributor is moderately exposed to fluctuation of daily surface temperature.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139597
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Govt India, Minist Commerce & Ind, Footwear Design & Dev Inst, Kolkata, India
2.Univ Calcutta, Dept Commerce, 23 Cent Rd,Flat 12, Kolkata 700032, India

Recommended Citation:
Basu, Mahuya,Chakraborty, Tanupa. Weather risk assessment of Indian power sector: A conditional value-at-risk approach[J]. ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,30(4):641-661
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