全球变化知识资源中心

Climate change is likely to increase the risks related to heat waves in urban areas. We map spatial pattern of heat wave vulnerability and risk in the Helsinki metropolitan area in southern Finland. First, we assess differences that zoning, i.e., differences in spatial units of analysis, and weighting, i.e., weights given to indicators when constructing the index, cause in map production. Second, we evaluate how maps of consensus and certainty could pave the way for visualizing and assessing uncertainties in risk and vulnerability indices. For vulnerability, we use socioeconomic data using 5 different zoning options and 11 different weighting options. For risk, we add two extra layers to vulnerability maps: hazard map showing the spatial pattern of heat based on Landsat satellite images and exposure map showing the spatial pattern of population. We found that when different zoning options are used, the spatial pattern of vulnerability may differ dramatically. In risk maps, the differences between zoning options are smaller. Contrary to previous literature, differences in indicator weighting alter the final maps slightly. The consensus and certainty maps show their potential, e.g., in pointing out areas which may have both high risk/vulnerability and high certainty for risk/vulnerability. Finally, we discuss other possibilities in tackling the uncertainties in mapping and propose new avenues for research.