globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s12205-019-1722-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000468237600039
论文题名:
Valuation of Water Resources Infrastructure Planning from Climate Change Adaptation Perspective using Real Option Analysis
作者: Ihm, Sun Hoo1; Seo, Seung Beom1; Kim, Young-Oh2
通讯作者: Seo, Seung Beom
刊名: KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
ISSN: 1226-7988
EISSN: 1976-3808
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:6, 页码:2794-2802
语种: 英语
英文关键词: real option analysis ; robust ; adaptive ; decision making ; economic feasibility
WOS关键词: RISK ; UNCERTAINTY ; PATHWAYS ; DESIGN
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil
WOS研究方向: Engineering
英文摘要:

For adaptation to the changing climate, planning of new water infrastructures should be carefully evaluated by either robust or adaptive decision making methods. For this purpose, a new economic feasibility analysis framework has been developed using real option analysis that can reflect robust and adaptive perspectives in decision making. To reflect uncertainty in climate (robust), the probabilities of drought occurrences are estimated by the results of dam storage simulation. To provide flexibility in decision making (adaptive), three different types of real options are used as a form of a decision tree. By re-evaluating economic feasibility of the Boryeong Dam conduit project, it is found that the abort option can be the best choice for minimal economic loss on the project. Further, more conditions for maximizing economic feasibility on the project are addressed from the sensitivity analysis. It is found that the invest option would be more economically feasible than abort option, when the probability of severe drought increases by approximately 20%. Thus, though the Boryeong Dam conduit project is not economically feasible for now, it might be an appropriate infrastructure if it is constructed in the future, when the probability of drought occurrence increases.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139701
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Korea Environm Inst, Sejong 30147, South Korea
2.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul 08826, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Ihm, Sun Hoo,Seo, Seung Beom,Kim, Young-Oh. Valuation of Water Resources Infrastructure Planning from Climate Change Adaptation Perspective using Real Option Analysis[J]. KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,2019-01-01,23(6):2794-2802
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ihm, Sun Hoo]'s Articles
[Seo, Seung Beom]'s Articles
[Kim, Young-Oh]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Ihm, Sun Hoo]'s Articles
[Seo, Seung Beom]'s Articles
[Kim, Young-Oh]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Ihm, Sun Hoo]‘s Articles
[Seo, Seung Beom]‘s Articles
[Kim, Young-Oh]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.