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DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001788
WOS记录号: WOS:000464572000006
论文题名:
Bivariate Design of Hydrological Droughts and Their Alterations under a Changing Environment
作者: Tu, Xinjun1,2; Du, Yiliang3; Singh, Vijay P.4,5; Chen, Xiaohong1; Zhao, Yong6; Ma, Mingwei7; Li, Kun3; Wu, Haiou3
通讯作者: Tu, Xinjun
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING
ISSN: 1084-0699
EISSN: 1943-5584
出版年: 2019
卷: 24, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought design ; Pooling and excluding of droughts ; Copula function ; Most-likely weight function ; Uncertainty ; Changing environment
WOS关键词: EAST RIVER-BASIN ; RETURN PERIOD ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STREAMFLOW ; COPULA ; UNCERTAINTY ; RISK ; STATIONARITY ; DURATION
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Few studies have focused on the multivariate joint design of drought properties. Using daily streamflow data, this paper analyzes the impacts of pooling and exclusion of drought events in determining hydrological drought properties. The bivariate joint distributions of droughts were determined by using copulas. A novel method for bivariate design, the most-likely weight function, was applied to select design pairs for drought properties. The confidence interval of design curves of a given joint return period was limited by the measure of the joint probability density function due to the uncertainty of the estimated copula parameter. By comparing subseries separated by the low-flow change point, drought properties and their joint distributions, and designs were investigated under changing environment. Results showed that it was appropriate to set the pooling and excluding ratios as 0.2 and 0.41, respectively. The dependences of drought properties were positive and Archimedean copulas fitted well the bivariate joint distribution of droughts. The uncertainty of design duration-peak was remarkably greater than that of duration-severity and severity-peak. The design duration-severity was considerably stationary. Under changing environment, drought duration, severity, and peak remarkably decreased.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139859
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Secur Engn & Technol South China Guangd, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Water Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
5.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
6.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
7.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Sch Water Conservancy, Zhengzhou 450045, Henan, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Tu, Xinjun,Du, Yiliang,Singh, Vijay P.,et al. Bivariate Design of Hydrological Droughts and Their Alterations under a Changing Environment[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING,2019-01-01,24(6)
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