globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114026
论文题名:
Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river–lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040
作者: Asim Zia; Arne Bomblies; Andrew W Schroth; Christopher Koliba; Peter D F Isles; Yushiou Tsai; Ibrahim N Mohammed; Gabriela Bucini; Patrick J Clemins; Scott Turnbull; Morgan Rodgers; Ahmed Hamed; Brian Beckage; Jonathan Winter; Carol Adair; Gillian L Galford; Donna Rizzo; Judith Van Houten
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-11-17
卷: 11, 期:11
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-based model was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrological model to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulated with a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. We find accelerated GCC could drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically by GCM and GCC scenario.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114026
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13993
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Community Development & Applied Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, USA;Institute for Environmental Diplomacy & Security, University of Vermont, USA;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Civil and Environmental of Engineering, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Geology, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Community Development & Applied Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Rubenstein School of Environment & Natural Resources, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Plant Biology, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, USA;Rubenstein School of Environment & Natural Resources, University of Vermont, USA;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Rubenstein School of Environment & Natural Resources, University of Vermont, USA;Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Civil and Environmental of Engineering, University of Vermont, USA;Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, USA;Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, USA

Recommended Citation:
Asim Zia,Arne Bomblies,Andrew W Schroth,et al. Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river–lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(11)
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