globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13285
WOS记录号: WOS:000471705400012
论文题名:
A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area
作者: Gertz, Aaron B.; Davies, James B.; Black, Samantha L.
通讯作者: Davies, James B.
刊名: RISK ANALYSIS
ISSN: 0272-4332
EISSN: 1539-6924
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:6, 页码:1314-1341
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Coastal ; economic impacts ; flooding ; modeling
WOS关键词: GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS ; INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES ; TRANSPORTATION NETWORK ; NATURAL DISASTER ; FRASER-RIVER ; IMPACT ; RISK ; ADAPTATION
WOS学科分类: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WOS研究方向: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
英文摘要:

Coastal cities around the world have experienced large costs from major flooding events in recent years. Climate change is predicted to bring an increased likelihood of flooding due to sea level rise and more frequent severe storms. In order to plan future development and adaptation, cities must know the magnitude of losses associated with these events, and how they can be reduced. Often losses are calculated from insurance claims or surveying flood victims. However, this largely neglects the loss due to the disruption of economic activity. We use a forward-looking dynamic computable general equilibrium model to study how a local economy responds to a flood, focusing on the subsequent recovery/reconstruction. Initial damage is modeled as a shock to the capital stock and recovery requires rebuilding that stock. We apply the model to Vancouver, British Columbia by considering a flood scenario causing total capital damage of $14.6 billion spread across five municipalities. GDP loss relative to a no-flood scenario is relatively long-lasting. It is 2.0% ($2.2 billion) in the first year after the flood, 1.7% ($1.9 billion) in the second year, and 1.2% ($1.4 billion) in the fifth year.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139950
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Univ Western Ontario, Dept Econ, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Gertz, Aaron B.,Davies, James B.,Black, Samantha L.. A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2019-01-01,39(6):1314-1341
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