In dryland environments, characterized by low and frequently variable rainfall, smallholder farmers must take crop water sensitivity into account along with other characteristics like seed availability and market price when deciding what to plant. In this paper we use the results of surveys conducted among smallholders located near Mount Kenya to identify clusters of farmers devoting different fractions of their land to subsistence and market crops. Additionally, we explore the tradeoffs between water-insensitive but low-value subsistence crops and a water-sensitive but high-value market crop using a numerical model that simulates soil moisture dynamics and crop production over multiple growing seasons. The cluster analysis shows that most farmers prefer to plant either only subsistence crops or only market crops, with a minority choosing to plant substantial fractions of both. The model output suggests that the value a farmer places on a successful growing season, a measure of risk aversion, plays a large role in whether the farmer chooses a subsistence or market crop strategy. Furthermore, access to irrigation, makes market crops more appealing, even to very risk-averse farmers. We then conclude that the observed clustering may result from different levels of risk aversion and access to irrigation.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 59 Olden Street, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA;National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), 1 Park Place Suite 300, Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;Department of Geography, Indiana University, Student Building 120, E. Kirkwood Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA;Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, 513 N. Park Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 59 Olden Street, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA;Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA;Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA;Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA;Department of Geography, Indiana University, Student Building 120, E. Kirkwood Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA;Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, 513 N. Park Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA
Recommended Citation:
Drew B Gower,Jampel Dell’Angelo,Paul F McCord,et al. Modeling ecohydrological dynamics of smallholder strategies for food production in dryland agricultural systems[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(11)