globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16122083
WOS记录号: WOS:000473750500017
论文题名:
Agglomerative Clustering of Enteric Infections and Weather Parameters to Identify Seasonal Outbreaks in Cold Climates
作者: Stashevsky, Pavel S.1; Yakovina, Irina N.1; Alarcon Falconi, Tania M.2; Naumova, Elena N.2,3
通讯作者: Naumova, Elena N.
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
ISSN: 1660-4601
出版年: 2019
卷: 16, 期:12
语种: 英语
英文关键词: machine learning ; agglomerative clustering ; t-SNE method ; harmonic regression models ; salmonellosis ; non-specific enteric infections ; seasonality ; meteorological parameters ; climate change
WOS关键词: TIME ; ALGORITHM ; DISEASES
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
英文摘要:

The utility of agglomerative clustering methods for understanding dynamic systems that do not have a well-defined periodic structure has not yet been explored. We propose using this approach to examine the association between disease and weather parameters, to compliment the traditional harmonic regression models, and to determine specific meteorological conditions favoring high disease incidence. We utilized daily records on reported salmonellosis and non-specific enteritis, and four meteorological parameters (ambient temperature, dew point, humidity, and barometric pressure) in Barnaul, Russia in 2004-2011, maintained by the CliWaDIn database. The data structure was examined using the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) method. The optimal number of clusters was selected based on Ward distance using the silhouette metric. The selected clusters were assessed with respect to their density and homogeneity. We detected that a well-defined cluster with high counts of salmonellosis occurred during warm summer days and unseasonably warm days in spring. We also detected a cluster with high counts of non-specific enteritis that occurred during unusually "very warm" winter days. The main advantage offered by the proposed technique is its ability to create a composite of meteorological conditions-a rule of thumb-to detect days favoring infectious outbreaks for a given location. These findings have major implications for understanding potential health impacts of climate change.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140089
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Novosibirsk State Tech Univ, Novosibirsk 630087, Russia
2.Tufts Univ, Friedman Sch Nutr Sci & Policy, Boston, MA 02111 USA
3.Tufts Univ, Sch Engn, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA

Recommended Citation:
Stashevsky, Pavel S.,Yakovina, Irina N.,Alarcon Falconi, Tania M.,et al. Agglomerative Clustering of Enteric Infections and Weather Parameters to Identify Seasonal Outbreaks in Cold Climates[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2019-01-01,16(12)
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