globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/en12122313
WOS记录号: WOS:000473821400086
论文题名:
Energy Demand Forecast Models for Commercial Buildings in South Korea
作者: Ha, Sungkyun1; Tae, Sungho2; Kim, Rakhyun3
通讯作者: Tae, Sungho ; Kim, Rakhyun
刊名: ENERGIES
ISSN: 1996-1073
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:12
语种: 英语
英文关键词: commercial building energy ; energy model ; demand forecast
WOS关键词: RENEWABLE ENERGY ; EVOLUTION
WOS学科分类: Energy & Fuels
WOS研究方向: Energy & Fuels
英文摘要:

With the Paris Agreement entering into full force, South Korea must submit its target greenhouse gas emissions for commercial buildings by 2030 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To determine this target, the annual energy demands must be forecasted through appropriate models; the development of these models is the focus of our study. We developed a system to calculate energy demand forecasts by searching for suitable methods. We built distinct energy forecast models for petroleum, city gas, electricity, heat, and renewable energies. The results show that the most appropriate variable for the petroleum energy model is energy trend. Moreover, the annual increase rate of petroleum energy demand from 2019 to 2030 was forecasted to be -1.7%. The appropriate variable for city gas energy model was the floor area of commercial buildings, which was forecasted to increase at an annual average growth rate of 0.4% from 2019 to 2030. According to the forecast results of energy demand from 2019 to 2030, the annual average growth rates of electricity, heat, and renewable energy demands were 2.1%, -0.2%, and 1.3%, respectively.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140119
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Hanyang Univ, Architectural Engn, 55 Hanyangdaehak Ro, Ansan 15588, South Korea
2.Hanyang Univ, Dept Architecture & Architectural Engn, 55 Hanyangdaehak Ro, Ansan 15588, South Korea
3.Hanyang Univ, Sustainable Bldg Res Ctr, 55 Hanyangdaehak Ro, Ansan 15588, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Ha, Sungkyun,Tae, Sungho,Kim, Rakhyun. Energy Demand Forecast Models for Commercial Buildings in South Korea[J]. ENERGIES,2019-01-01,12(12)
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