globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217206
WOS记录号: WOS:000470086200009
论文题名:
Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary
作者: Nah, Kyeongah1; Magpantay, Felicia Maria G.2; Bede-Fazekas, Akos3,4; Rost, Gergely5,6; Trajer, Attila Janos7,8; Wu, Xiaotian9; Zhang, Xue10; Wu, Jianhong1
通讯作者: Wu, Jianhong
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:6
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SEASONAL POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; IXODES-RICINUS TICKS ; LYME-DISEASE ; INFECTION ; BORRELIOSIS ; PATHOGENS ; EUROPE ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; INFESTATION ; TEMPERATURE
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140172
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.York Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Toronto, ON, Canada
2.Queens Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Kingston, ON, Canada
3.MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Inst Ecol & Bot, Vacratot, Hungary
4.MTA Ctr Ecol Res, GINOP Sustainable Ecosyst Grp, Tihany, Hungary
5.Univ Oxford, Wolfson Ctr Math Biol, Oxford, England
6.Univ Szeged, Bolyai Inst, Szeged, Hungary
7.Univ Pannonia, Dept Limnol, Veszprem, Hungary
8.Univ Pannonia, Inst Environm Engn, Veszprem, Hungary
9.Shanghai Maritime Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
10.Northeastern Univ, Dept Math, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Nah, Kyeongah,Magpantay, Felicia Maria G.,Bede-Fazekas, Akos,et al. Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary[J]. PLOS ONE,2019-01-01,14(6)
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