globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218160
WOS记录号: WOS:000471238300057
论文题名:
Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future
作者: de Luis, Miguel1; Alvarez-Jimenez, Julio1; Martinez Labarga, Juan Manuel2; Bartolome, Carmen1
通讯作者: Bartolome, Carmen
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:6
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; GYPSUM ; RESPONSES ; PLASTICITY ; PREDICTION ; VEGETATION ; PATTERNS ; ECOLOGY ; IMPACT ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bio-climatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140311
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Alcalao, Dept Ciencias Vida, Fac Biol Ambientales & Quim C, Alcala De Henares, Madrid, Spain
2.Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Sistemas & Recursos Nat, ETSI Montes Forestal & Medio Nat, Madrid, Spain

Recommended Citation:
de Luis, Miguel,Alvarez-Jimenez, Julio,Martinez Labarga, Juan Manuel,et al. Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future[J]. PLOS ONE,2019-01-01,14(6)
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