globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028
论文题名:
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
作者: Heidi K Mod; Miska Luoto
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-12-15
卷: 11, 期:12
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14041
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a), FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland;Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, UNIL Sorge, Le Biophore, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a), FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Heidi K Mod,Miska Luoto. Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(12)
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