globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1612521
WOS记录号: WOS:000477224900001
论文题名:
Performance evaluation of AR5-CMIP5 models for the representation of seasonal and multi-annual variability of precipitation in Brazilian hydropower sector basins under RCP8.5 scenario
作者: Silveira, Cleiton Da Silva1; Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco Das Chagas2; De Souza Filho, Francisco De Assis1; Guimaraes, Sullyandro Oliveira2; Marcos Junior, Antonio Duarte1; Lima Dos Reis, Giullian Nicola2; Porto, Victor Costa1
通讯作者: Silveira, Cleiton Da Silva
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN: 0262-6667
EISSN: 2150-3435
出版年: 2019
卷: 64, 期:11, 页码:1279-1296
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 model ; hydroelectric sector ; climate change ; Brazil
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; COUPLED MODEL ; PART I ; SIMULATION ; FORMULATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; CIRCULATION ; WELL
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Representations of precipitation from CMIP5 models over the 1950-1999 period in hydrographic basins that are relevant to the Brazilian electricity sector are evaluated in this study. The majority of ensemble members adequately represented seasonal variability, although they differed about the patterns of high-frequency interannual variation. The models did not adequately represent seasonal-scale precipitation in the southern region of Brazil. Relative to other models, the CNRM_CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models demonstrated good seasonal and interannual representation over most basins, while the global CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL_CM5A-LR models demonstrated relatively poor performance. The models concur on the impact of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Southeast/Midwest and South sectors over the period 2015-2044, suggesting that precipitation will decrease up to 15% in the basin supplying the Furnas hydropower plant and by 12% in the basin supplying the Itaipu plant, which represents 25% of the hydroelectric production in Brazil.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140546
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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Ceara, Dept Hydraul & Environm Engn, Campus Pici,Bloco 713,1 Andar Ctr Tecnol, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
2.Fundacao Cearense Meteorol & Recursos Hidr FUNCEM, Dept Meteorol, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Silveira, Cleiton Da Silva,Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco Das Chagas,De Souza Filho, Francisco De Assis,et al. Performance evaluation of AR5-CMIP5 models for the representation of seasonal and multi-annual variability of precipitation in Brazilian hydropower sector basins under RCP8.5 scenario[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2019-01-01,64(11):1279-1296
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