globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6042
WOS记录号: WOS:000474160800019
论文题名:
Change point analysis of global temperature records
作者: Yu, Michelle1; Ruggieri, Eric2
通讯作者: Ruggieri, Eric
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:8, 页码:3679-3688
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian change point ; climate change ; GISTEMP ; HadCRUT4 ; temperature anomalies ; time series ; zonal bands
WOS关键词: BINARY SEGMENTATION ; BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS ; COMPUTATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climate change is the result of complex interactions between a wide array of climatic variables. Over a long period of time, climatic patterns can shift, possibly multiple times. Abrupt shifts that occur over a relatively short period of time are known as change points. During these intervals, different climatic variables may undergo dramatic shifts posing serious consequences for many biological and physical systems. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian algorithm for detecting the location of change points in time series data. In particular, we utilize our method to analyse five different global surface temperature anomaly data sets, as well as temperature records associated with land, ocean, and different zonal bands in an attempt to identify common features of these data sets. Change points in the five global records were detected between 1902-1917, 1936-1945, and 1963-1976, but do these change points also manifest themselves across other parts of the globe? Our analysis indicates that the timing of change points is consistent from one record to the next, but not all change points appear in all records. In particular, there were more change points in the ocean than on land, and also more change points in southern latitudes than in northern latitudes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140712
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Stat, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
2.Coll Holy Cross, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Worcester, MA 01610 USA

Recommended Citation:
Yu, Michelle,Ruggieri, Eric. Change point analysis of global temperature records[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(8):3679-3688
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