globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6031
WOS记录号: WOS:000474160800018
论文题名:
Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming
作者: Tan, Kexin1,2,3,4; Huang, Ping3,4,5; Liu, Fei1,2; Murakami, Hiroyuki6,7; Hsu, Pang-chi8
通讯作者: Huang, Ping
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:8, 页码:3668-3678
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; ENSO ; global warming ; WNP TC genesis
WOS关键词: PROJECTED FUTURE CHANGES ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION ; EL-NINO ; INTERANNUAL VARIATION ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; STORM FORMATION ; MONSOON GYRE ; LA-NINA
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in modulating the location of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study evaluated the simulation of the ENSO's impact on WNP TC genesis in 10 CMIP5 models based on a TC detection method, and projected its changes under global warming using the historical and the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations. The observed southeast-northwest shift role of ENSO in the WNP TC genesis location can be well reproduced in most of the models, although the strength of the ENSO's impact is underestimated as the underestimated climatological TC genesis frequency in these models. Moreover, we found the WNP TC during both El Nino and La Nina events shows an apparent eastwards shift under global warming. However, this eastwards shift of WNP TC genesis could be associated with the changes in climatological TC genesis but not the changes in the ENSO's impact. The projected changes in the ENSO's impact on WNP TC genesis is not as certain as we expected based on the previous conclusions of the robust changes in ENSO's impact on large-scale environment. As a result, we suggest that both the TC genesis climatology and ENSO's impact on TC genesis simulated in the models need improvement in future to project the changes in ENSO's impact under global warming, and more models with 6-hourly outputs used to detect TCs are needed to increase the confidence of multi-model ensemble projections.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140713
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Climate Dynam Res Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
5.JCGCS, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
7.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Cooperat Programs Adv Earth Syst Sci, Boulder, CO USA
8.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Tan, Kexin,Huang, Ping,Liu, Fei,et al. Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(8):3668-3678
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