globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02434-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000473162200002
论文题名:
Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways
作者: Bubeck, Philip1; Dillenardt, Lisa1; Alfieri, Lorenzo2; Feyen, Luc2; Thieken, Annegret H.1; Kellermann, Patric1,3
通讯作者: Bubeck, Philip
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 155, 期:1, 页码:19-36
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: RIVER FLOOD ; DAMAGE ; EXTREMES ; INFRASTRUCTURE ; PROJECTIONS ; HAZARD ; COSTS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

For effective disaster risk management and adaptation planning, a good understanding of current and projected flood risk is required. Recent advances in quantifying flood risk at the regional and global scale have largely neglected critical infrastructure, or addressed this important sector with insufficient detail. Here, we present the first European-wide assessment of current and future flood risk to railway tracks for different global warming scenarios using an infrastructure-specific damage model. We find that the present risk, measured as expected annual damage, to railway networks in Europe is approx. (sic)581 million per year, with the highest risk relative to the length of the network in North Macedonia, Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and Germany. Based on an ensemble of climate projections for RCP8.5, we show that current risk to railway networks is projected to increase by 255% under a 1.5 degrees C, by 281% under a 2 degrees C, and by 310% under a 3 degrees C warming scenario. The largest increases in risk under a 3 degrees C scenario are projected for Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, and Belgium. Our advances in the projection of flood risk to railway infrastructure are important given their criticality, and because losses to public infrastructure are usually not insured or even uninsurable in the private market. To cover the risk increase due to climate change, European member states would need to increase expenditure in transport by (sic)1.22 billion annually under a 3 degrees C warming scenario without further adaptation. Limiting global warming to the 1.5 degrees C goal of the Paris Agreement would result in avoided losses of (sic)317 million annually.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140749
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作者单位: 1.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
2.European Commiss, JRC, Directorate E Space Secur & Migrat, Via E Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
3.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Hydrol 4 4, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Bubeck, Philip,Dillenardt, Lisa,Alfieri, Lorenzo,et al. Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,155(1):19-36
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