globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014012
论文题名:
On the evaluation of climate model simulated precipitation extremes
作者: Andrea Toreti; Philippe Naveau
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-01-21
卷: 10, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The evaluation of precipitation extremes is a paramount challenging issue in climate sciences and there is a need of both assessing changes in climate projections and comparing climate model simulations with observations. To address these needs, a non-parametric approach specifically designed for extremes is here proposed. The method is tested and applied to observations and CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections (under the high emission scenario RCP8.5) over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Results support the existence of a scaling relationship among models and between models and observations in terms of conditional mean of the extremes. However, the rescaled tails of models' precipitation show significant differences when compared with observations. Concerning future projections, models show an intensification of heavy precipitation (especially at the end of the 21st century) linked to a change in the conditional mean of extremes. More complex changes in the upper tails are not identified at the mid-century, while a lack of model agreement prevents drawing definitive conclusions for the end of the century.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014012
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14074
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy;Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l’Environnement (LSCE) CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Recommended Citation:
Andrea Toreti,Philippe Naveau. On the evaluation of climate model simulated precipitation extremes[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(1)
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