globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/w11071507
WOS记录号: WOS:000480632300192
论文题名:
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections
作者: Le Cozannet, Goneri; Thieblemont, Remi; Rohmer, Jeremy; Idier, Deborah; Manceau, Jean-Charles; Quique, Robin
通讯作者: Le Cozannet, Goneri
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: sea-level rise ; projections ; probabilistic
WOS关键词: ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET ; VERTICAL LAND MOTION ; SURFACE MASS-BALANCE ; RISE ; CLIMATE ; MODEL ; GREENLAND ; UNCERTAINTY ; SCENARIOS ; GLACIERS
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to low-end sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minimum adaptation needs. Here, we provide global and regional probabilistic sea-level projections using conservative projections of glaciers and ice-sheets melting and a selection of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) delivering moderate thermal expansion. Our low-end sea-level projections are higher than previously estimated because they rely on modeling outcomes only, and do not add any expert judgement, aiming essentially at delivering more realistic upper tails. While there are good reasons to believe that our projections are excessively optimistic, they can be used as low-end sea-level projections in order to inform users with low aversion to uncertainty. Our low-end sea-level projection exceeds 0.5 m along most inhabited coasts by 2100 for business as usual greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is relevant for adaptation practitioners as long as efficient climate change mitigation policies are not implemented. This means that without efficient climate mitigation, an acceleration of sea-level rise can hardly be avoided during the 21st century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140833
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Bur Rech Geol & Minieres, French Geol Survey, 3 Ave Claude Guillemin, F-45060 Orleans, France

Recommended Citation:
Le Cozannet, Goneri,Thieblemont, Remi,Rohmer, Jeremy,et al. Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(7)
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