globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/met.1772
WOS记录号: WOS:000477682800007
论文题名:
Multi-model ensemble predictions of aviation turbulence
作者: Storer, Luke N.1; Gill, Philip G.2; Williams, Paul D.1
通讯作者: Storer, Luke N.
刊名: METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN: 1350-4827
EISSN: 1469-8080
出版年: 2019
卷: 26, 期:3, 页码:416-428
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aviation ; ensemble ; forecast ; multi-model ; turbulence
WOS关键词: CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE ; INERTIA-GRAVITY WAVES ; SPONTANEOUS IMBALANCE ; PART I ; WEATHER ; GENERATION ; IMPACT ; FLOW
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Turbulence remains one of the leading causes of aviation incidents. Climate change is predicted to increase the occurrence of clear-air turbulence and therefore forecasting turbulence will become more important in the future. Currently, the two World Area Forecast Centres (WAFCs) use deterministic numerical weather prediction models to predict clear-air turbulence operationally; it has been shown that ensemble forecasts improve the forecast skill of traditional meteorological variables. This study applies multi-model ensemble forecasting to aviation turbulence for the first time. It is shown in a 12-month global trial from May 2016 to April 2017 that combining two different ensembles yields a similar forecast skill to a single model ensemble and yields an improvement in forecast value at low cost/loss ratios. This finding is consistent with previous work showing that the use of ensembles in turbulence forecasting is beneficial. Using a multi-model approach is an effective way to improve the forecast skill and provide pilots and flight planners with more information about the forecast confidence, allowing them to make a more informed decision about what action needs to be taken, such as diverting around the turbulence or requiring passengers and flight attendants to fasten their seatbelts. The multi-model ensemble approach is intended to be made operational by both WAFCs in the near future and this study lays the foundations to make this possible.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140836
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
2.Met Off, Weather Sci, Exeter, Devon, England

Recommended Citation:
Storer, Luke N.,Gill, Philip G.,Williams, Paul D.. Multi-model ensemble predictions of aviation turbulence[J]. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,2019-01-01,26(3):416-428
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Storer, Luke N.]'s Articles
[Gill, Philip G.]'s Articles
[Williams, Paul D.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Storer, Luke N.]'s Articles
[Gill, Philip G.]'s Articles
[Williams, Paul D.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Storer, Luke N.]‘s Articles
[Gill, Philip G.]‘s Articles
[Williams, Paul D.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.