globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000476738100002
论文题名:
Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production
作者: Guarin, Jose Rafael1; Emberson, Lisa2; Simpson, David3,4; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.1; Rowland, Diane5; Asseng, Senthold1
通讯作者: Guarin, Jose Rafael
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 155, 期:2, 页码:157-174
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Crop model ; Wheat yield ; Emissions scenario ; Future impact ; Food security
WOS关键词: SURFACE OZONE ; AGRICULTURAL CROPS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; AIR-QUALITY ; YIELD ; GROWTH ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; RESPONSES ; EXPOSURE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O-3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O-3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O-3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenario with pre-industrial O-3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O-3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O-3 sensitivity cultivar classifications. The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O-3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O-3 impact, depending on the cultivar O-3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O-3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O-3 impacts should be considered in future agricultural impact assessments.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140880
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
2.Univ York, Environm & Geog Dept, Stockholm Environm Inst, York, N Yorkshire, England
3.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, EMEP MSC W, Oslo, Norway
4.Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, Gothenburg, Sweden
5.Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

Recommended Citation:
Guarin, Jose Rafael,Emberson, Lisa,Simpson, David,et al. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,155(2):157-174
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