globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001123
WOS记录号: WOS:000479280100011
论文题名:
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
作者: Krause, A.1,2; Haverd, V.3; Poulter, B.4; Anthoni, P.1; Quesada, B.1,5; Rammig, A.2; Arneth, A.1
通讯作者: Krause, A.
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:7, 页码:833-851
语种: 英语
英文关键词: land use change ; climate change projections ; terrestrial ecosystems ; vegetation modeling ; ecosystem service indicators ; legacy effects
WOS关键词: LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE MODULE ; ALONE TREE DEMOGRAPHY ; COVER CHANGE ; CARBON UPTAKE ; RELATIVE IMPORTANCE ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; SNOW COVER ; MODEL ; RESPONSES ; NITROGEN
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080-2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 +/- 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to -0.021 +/- 0.007 and -0.004 +/- 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 +/- 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140894
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作者单位: 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
2.Tech Univ Munich, TUM Sch Life Sci Weihenstephan, Freising Weihenstephan, Germany
3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia
4.NASA, Biospher Sci Lab, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD USA
5.Univ Rosario, Interact Climate Environm ICE Res Grp, Fac Nat Sci & Math, Bogota, Colombia

Recommended Citation:
Krause, A.,Haverd, V.,Poulter, B.,et al. Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(7):833-851
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