globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/met.1776
WOS记录号: WOS:000477682800011
论文题名:
Frequency analyses of extreme precipitation events in Western Black Sea Basin (Turkey) based on climate change projections
作者: Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Altunkaynak, Abduesselam
通讯作者: Balov, Mustafa Nuri
刊名: METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN: 1350-4827
EISSN: 1469-8080
出版年: 2019
卷: 26, 期:3, 页码:468-482
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annual maxima ; bias correction ; climate change ; GFDL-ESM2M ; HadGEM2-ES ; MPI-ESM-MR ; peak over threshold ; Turkey ; western Black Sea basin
WOS关键词: BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS ; RAINFALL EVENTS ; OVER-THRESHOLD ; TREND ANALYSIS ; RIVER-BASIN ; MODEL ; IMPACTS ; PEAKS ; UNCERTAINTIES
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Western Black Sea Basin of Turkey were investigated by using the annual maxima (AM) and peaks over threshold (POT) methods. Daily precipitation data measured between 1971 and 2000 at nine meteorological stations and projected and dynamically downscaled precipitation data from the outputs of GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios were used to generate maximum daily rainfall intensity for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 year return periods. The outputs of the GCMs were corrected by a modified linear scaling bias correction method to offset the uncertainties of the GCMs before frequency analyses. The datasets were fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution and a generalized Pareto distribution for the AM and POT methods, respectively. Based on a statistical test a reliable goodness-of-fit was obtained. The results of frequency analyses of daily storms by using the GCM data, after bias correction, showed that by the end of the current century the magnitude of the storms will increase by 31.29% and 27.00% based on the AM and POT methods respectively under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 43.51% and 31.29% based on the AM and POT methods respectively under the RCP8.5 scenario. The magnitude of the 24 hr rainfall intensity calculated by the AM method was more than that of the POT method by 22% on average. For the whole basin (on average) the mean maximum daily rainfall intensity was found to be 33.45, 46.18, 57.24, 69.16, 87.68, 104.51 and 154.60 mm/day for the respective return periods.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140916
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Istanbul Tech Univ, Fac Civil Engn, Hydraul & Water Resources Div, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey

Recommended Citation:
Balov, Mustafa Nuri,Altunkaynak, Abduesselam. Frequency analyses of extreme precipitation events in Western Black Sea Basin (Turkey) based on climate change projections[J]. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,2019-01-01,26(3):468-482
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