globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.5751/ES-10818-240227
WOS记录号: WOS:000482712400013
论文题名:
Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
作者: Harrison, Paula A.1; Harmackova, Zuzana, V2; Karabulut, Armagan Aloe3; Brotons, Lluis4,5,6; Cantele, Matthew7,8; Claudet, Joachim9,10; Dunford, Robert W.11; Guisan, Antoine12,13; Holman, Ian P.14; Jacobs, Sander15; Kok, Kasper16; Lobanova, Anastasia17; Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra5; Pedde, Simona16; Rixen, Christian18,19; Santos-Martin, Fernando20; Schlaepfer, Martin A.21; Solidoro, Cosimo22,23; Sonrel, Anthony12; Hauck, Jennifer24
通讯作者: Harrison, Paula A.
刊名: ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY
ISSN: 1708-3087
出版年: 2019
卷: 24, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biodiversity ; drivers ; ecosystem services ; exploratory scenarios ; impacts ; IPBES ; models ; nature ; nature' ; s contributions to people (NCP)
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS ; LAND-USE CHANGE ; SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT ; AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES ; CONCEPTUAL-FRAMEWORK ; MOUNTAIN AREAS ; IMPACTS ; POLICY ; VULNERABILITY ; CONSEQUENCES
WOS学科分类: Ecology ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature's contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature's contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.


Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:26   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/140924
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster, England
2.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden
3.DG Agr Res & Policies, TARM GIS & RS Ctr, Ankara, Turkey
4.CREAF, Barcelona, Spain
5.InForest Joint Res Unit CTFC CREAF, Solsona, Spain
6.CSIC, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain
7.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria
8.Univ Melbourne, Sch BioSci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
9.PSL Univ Paris, Natl Ctr Sci Res, CRIOBE, Paris, France
10.Lab Excellence CORAIL, Mloorea, French Polynesi, France
11.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England
12.Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Lausanne, Switzerland
13.Univ Lausanne, Inst Earth Surface Dynam, Lausanne, Switzerland
14.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Cranfield, Beds, England
15.Res Inst Nat & Forest INBO, Brussels, Belgium
16.Wageningen Univ & Res, Soi1 Geog & Landscape Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands
17.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
18.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
19.Inst Snow & Avalanche Res SLF, Davos, Switzerland
20.Autonomous Univ Madrid, Dept Ecol, Social Ecol Syst Lab, Madrid, Spain
21.Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland
22.Natl Inst Oceanog & Expt Geophys OGS, Trieste, Italy
23.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Trieste, Italy
24.CoKnow Consulting Coproducing Knowledge Sustainab, Jesewitz, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Harrison, Paula A.,Harmackova, Zuzana, V,Karabulut, Armagan Aloe,et al. Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes[J]. ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY,2019-01-01,24(2)
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