globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.04.002
WOS记录号: WOS:000472984800016
论文题名:
Predicting larval tick burden on white-footed mice with an artificial neural network
作者: Mowry, Stacy1; Keesing, Felicia2; Fischhoff, Ilya R.1; Ostfeld, Richard S.1
通讯作者: Mowry, Stacy
刊名: ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS
ISSN: 1574-9541
EISSN: 1878-0512
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 页码:150-158
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aggregation ; Blacklegged ticks ; Ixodes scapularis ; White-footed mouse ; Peromyscus leucopus ; Larval burden ; Artificial neural network (ANN)
WOS关键词: IXODES-SCAPULARIS ACARI ; PEROMYSCUS-LEUCOPUS ; LYME BORRELIOSIS ; BORNE DISEASES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HOSTS ; ABUNDANCE ; IXODIDAE ; RICINUS ; COMMUNITY
WOS学科分类: Ecology
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

White-footed mice are important hosts for immature blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) and the most competent reservoir hosts for several tick-borne pathogens, including the agent of Lyme disease, in eastern North America. The distribution of larval ticks on individual mice tends to be highly heterogeneous, potentially resulting in few individual hosts causing the majority of host-to-tick transmission events. In this study, we created an artificial neural network (ANN) model using a 20 year data set from Millbrook, NY, to understand which attributes of mice or the environment predict high larval burden. Furthermore, we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of, and interactions between, the most influential attributes. Our analysis indicated that highest larval burden is predicted in warmer and drier than average years when host abundance is low, and that climatic conditions and host density are far more important in predicting larval burden than traits of individual mice, a finding that could have human health implications within the context of a warming climate. Practically, our results suggest that instead of basing tick-control treatments on particular attributes of hosts, treatments should be targeted based on climate factors. Additionally, our results highlight the importance of including variable interactions in models aiming to predict vector (tick) aggregation, and, most broadly, demonstrate the utility of ANNs in understanding aggregation of ticks and other vectors.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141045
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Cary Inst Ecosyst Studies, 2801 Sharon Turnpike, Millbrook, NY 12564 USA
2.Bard Coll, POB 5000, Annandale On Hudson, NY 12504 USA

Recommended Citation:
Mowry, Stacy,Keesing, Felicia,Fischhoff, Ilya R.,et al. Predicting larval tick burden on white-footed mice with an artificial neural network[J]. ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS,2019-01-01,52:150-158
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