UNITED-STATES
; EUROPEAN SUMMER
; SOIL-MOISTURE
; HEAT WAVES
; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY
; VINE-COPULA
; MODEL
; ATMOSPHERE
; DEPENDENCE
; FRAMEWORK
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
Although the link between droughts and heat waves is widely recognized, how climate change affects this link remains uncertain. Here we assess how, and by how much, human-induced climate change affects summertime hot drought compound events over the contiguous United States. Results are derived by comparing hot drought statistics in long simulations of a coupled climate model (CESM1) subjected to year-1850 and year-2000 radiative forcings. Within each climate state, a strong and nonlinear dependency of heat-wave intensity on drought severity is found in water-limited regions of the southern Great Plains and southwestern United States whereas heat-wave intensity is found to be insensitive to drought severity in energy-limited regions of the northern and/or northeastern United States. Applying a statistical model that is based on pair-copula constructions, we find that anthropogenic warming leads to enhanced soil moisture-temperature coupling in water-limited areas of the southern Great Plains and/or southwestern United States and consequently amplifies the intensity of extreme heat waves during severe droughts. This strengthened coupling accounts for a substantial fraction of rising temperature extremes related to the long-term climate change in CESM1, highlighting the importance of changes in land-atmosphere feedback in a warmer climate. In contrast, coupling effects remain weak and largely unchanged in energy-limited regions, thereby yielding no appreciable contribution to heat-wave intensification over the northern and/or northeastern United States apart from the long-term warming effects.
1.Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA 2.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA 3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China 4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Engn Technol Res Ctr Water Secur Regula, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China 5.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA
Recommended Citation:
Cheng, Linyin,Hoerling, Martin,Liu, Zhiyong,et al. Physical Understanding of Human-Induced Changes in US Hot Droughts Using Equilibrium Climate Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019-01-01,32(14):4431-4443