Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.
1.London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England 2.Univ Southampton, Sch Engn, Southampton, Hants, England 3.Bournemouth Univ, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Life & Environm Sci, Poole, Dorset, England 4.Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich, Norfolk, England 5.Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England 6.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Geog, Exeter, Devon, England 7.NIH, Climate Energy & Water Resources Inst, Natl Agr Res Ctr, Islamabad, Pakistan 8.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen, Netherlands 9.Int Inst Environm & Dev, London, England 10.FutureWater, Wageningen, Netherlands 11.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands 12.Kenya Markets Trust, Nairobi, Kenya 13.Indian Inst Human Settlements, Bangalore, Karnataka, India 14.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Cape Town, South Africa 15.Overseas Dev Inst, London, England 16.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev, Kathmandu, Nepal
Recommended Citation:
Conway, Declan,Nicholls, Robert J.,Brown, Sally,et al. The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(7):503-511