globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/su11133644
WOS记录号: WOS:000477051900142
论文题名:
Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth
作者: Rezny, Lukas; Bures, Vladimir
通讯作者: Bures, Vladimir
刊名: SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN: 2071-1050
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:13
语种: 英语
英文关键词: economic dynamics ; energy transition ; neoclassical growth model ; EROEI ; feedback structure ; system dynamics
WOS关键词: LIMITS ; DYNAMICS ; RETURN ; EROI ; SYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Introduction: Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of fossil fuels has been declining sharply, while modern renewable energy sources generally have even lower EROEI than fossil fuels. It has been repeatedly proven that economic growth expressed in the form of growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is closely related to intensified energy consumption and escalated usage of natural resources in general. This problem remains scarcely explored in pure economic modelling. Objectives: This study presents a novel model titled Energy Extended Neoclassical Growth Model (EENGM), which focuses on the consequences of declining quantity and quality of extractable fossil fuels and lower quality of the succeeding renewable energy technology for economic growth. Method: The Neoclassical growth model is translated into a system dynamics format and is extended by important feedback mechanisms, which are identified as important from the literature and mostly missing from the analyzed system dynamics models with a similar scope. Two scenarios assess the EENGM performance: business as usual (BAU) and the sustainability strategy (SUS). Results: Sensitivity analysis is performed for the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) parameter and results in the investment share in GDP varying between 27 and 40%, while the energy sector investment largely displaces investment in other economic sectors. The EENGM is associated with new behavior whereby the underperforming energy sector limits GDP growth and seizes most of the available investment. The adoption of the SUS strategy causes 28% lower cumulative fossil fuel aggregate consumption which still corresponds to higher than 1.5 degrees C global warming compared to the preindustrial levels. Conclusion: The share of consumption in the GDP of an economy undergoing energy transition can approach levels previously seen only in totally war-oriented economies. Even omitting other negative environmental feedback, the feasibility of the successful energy transition of the system in its contemporary form, with the currently available renewable energy technology, seems to be highly uncertain.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141167
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Univ Hradec Kralove, Fac Informat & Management, Rokitanskeho 62, Hradec Kralove 50003, Czech Republic

Recommended Citation:
Rezny, Lukas,Bures, Vladimir. Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,11(13)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Rezny, Lukas]'s Articles
[Bures, Vladimir]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Rezny, Lukas]'s Articles
[Bures, Vladimir]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Rezny, Lukas]‘s Articles
[Bures, Vladimir]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.