globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13449
WOS记录号: WOS:000477751000007
论文题名:
An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)
作者: Padulano, Roberta; Reder, Alfredo; Rianna, Guido
通讯作者: Padulano, Roberta
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN: 0885-6087
EISSN: 1099-1085
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:14, 页码:2020-2036
语种: 英语
英文关键词: EURO-CORDEX ; bias-correction ; quantile delta mapping ; storm index ; intensity-duration-frequency curves ; growth factor ; early warning system ; generalized extreme value ; ensemble approach
WOS关键词: DURATION FREQUENCY CURVES ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EURO-CORDEX ; IDF CURVES ; COSMO-CLM ; INTENSITY ; IMPACTS ; UNCERTAINTY ; SIMULATIONS
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO-CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971-2000 and the future period 2071-2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias-correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity-duration-frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141340
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作者单位: Fdn CMCC, Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Capua, Caserta, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Padulano, Roberta,Reder, Alfredo,Rianna, Guido. An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2019-01-01,33(14):2020-2036
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