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This paper presents the concepts of a probabilistic model for storm overflow discharges, in which arbitrary dynamics of the catchment urbanization were included in the assumed period covered by calculations. This model is composed of three components. The first constitutes the classification model for the forecast of storm overflow discharges, in which its operation was related to rainfall characteristics, catchment retention, as well as the degree of imperviousness. The second component is a synthetic precipitation generator, serving for the simulation of long-term observation series. The third component of the model includes the functions of dynamic changes in the methods of the catchment development. It allows for the simulation of changes in the extent of imperviousness of the catchment in the long-term perspective. This is an important advantage of the model, because it gives the possibility of forecasting (dynamic control) of catchment retention, accounting for the quantitative criteria and their potential changes in the long-term perspective in relation to the number of storm overflows. Analyses carried out in the research revealed that the empirical coefficients included in the logit model have a physical interpretation, which makes it possible to apply the obtained model to other catchments. The paper also shows the use of the prepared probabilistic model for rational catchment management, with respect to the forecasted number of storm overflow discharges in the long-term and short-term perspective. The model given in the work can be also applied to the design and monitoring of catchment retention in such a way that in the progressive climatic changes and urbanization of the catchment, the number of storm overflow discharges remains within the established range.