globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.068
WOS记录号: WOS:000476962800045
论文题名:
Design considerations for riverine floods in a changing climate - A review
作者: Francois, B.1; Schlef, K. E.1,2; Wi, S.1; Brown, C. M.1
通讯作者: Francois, B.
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
EISSN: 1879-2707
出版年: 2019
卷: 574, 页码:557-573
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flood ; Design ; Climate change ; Uncertainty
WOS关键词: PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD ; OF-THE-ART ; MODEL UNCERTAINTY COMPONENTS ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CHANGE IMPACT ; BIAS CORRECTION ; UNITED-STATES ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Conventional methods for designing infrastructure that is subject to flood risk, such as dams and levees, assume a stationary design flood. However, observed and potential non-stationarity in floods can result in costly over design or dangerous under-design. Despite substantial attention, evidence from the literature makes clear there is no consensus methodology for estimating design variables under climate change. Practical guidance remains elusive. This paper presents a review of the challenges and advances in design of infrastructure for floods under non-stationarity. First, potential sources of non-stationarity in time series of floods are described to provide context and motivation. Second, methods for estimating design floods that rely on the stationary assumption are presented and their limitations are discussed. Third, methods for estimating design floods that assume non-stationarity resulting from climate change are summarized. Finally, the inadequacies of current design methodologies in view of the pervasive uncertainties are assessed and strategies to manage the consequences of those uncertainties are presented.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141382
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
2.Consortium Univ Adv Hydrol Sci Inc, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA

Recommended Citation:
Francois, B.,Schlef, K. E.,Wi, S.,et al. Design considerations for riverine floods in a changing climate - A review[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,574:557-573
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