globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.056
WOS记录号: WOS:000476962800047
论文题名:
Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region
作者: Yan, Lei1,2; Xiong, Lihua1; Ruan, Gusong3; Xu, Chong-Yu1,4; Yan, Pengtao5; Liu, Pan1
通讯作者: Xiong, Lihua
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
EISSN: 1879-2707
出版年: 2019
卷: 574, 页码:588-608
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flood frequency analysis ; Two-component mixture distribution ; Flood generation mechanisms ; Flood types classification ; Flood timescale ; Norway
WOS关键词: EXTREME-VALUE DISTRIBUTION ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CAUTIONARY NOTE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WIND-SPEED ; PRECIPITATION ; STATIONARITY ; NONSTATIONARITY ; BOOTSTRAP ; RAINFALL
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

The conventional flood frequency analysis typically assumes the annual maximum flood series (AMFS) result from a homogeneous flood population. However, actually AMFS are frequently generated by distinct flood generation mechanisms (FGMs), which are controlled by the interaction between different meteorological triggers (e.g., thunderstorms, typhoon, snowmelt) and properties of underlying surface (e.g., antecedent soil moisture and land-cover types). To consider the possibility of two FGMs in flood frequency analysis, researchers often use the two-component mixture distributions (TCMD) without explicitly linking each component distribution to a particular FGM. To improve the mixture distribution modeling in seasonally snow covered regions, an index called flood timescale (FT), defined as the ratio of the flood volume to peak value and chosen to reflect the relevant FGM, is employed to classify each flood into one of two types, i.e., the snowmelt-induced long duration floods and the rainfall-induced short-duration floods, thus identifying the weighting coefficient of each component distribution beforehand. In applying the FT-based TCMD to model the AMPS of 34 watersheds in Norway, ten types of mixture distributions are considered. The design floods and associated confidence intervals are calculated using parametric bootstrap method. The results indicate that the FT-based TCMD model reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of design floods for high return periods by up to 40% with respect to the traditional TCMD. The improved predictive ability of the FT-based TCMD model is attributed to its explicit recognition of distinct generation mechanisms of floods, thereby being able to identify the weighting coefficient and FGM of each component distribution without optimization.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141389
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Hebei Univ Engn, Coll Water Conservancy & Hydropower, Handan 056021, Peoples R China
3.Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate NV, Oslo, Norway
4.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1022, N-0315 Oslo, Norway
5.Xingtai Univ, Sch Phys & Elect Engn, Xingtai 054001, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Yan, Lei,Xiong, Lihua,Ruan, Gusong,et al. Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,574:588-608
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