globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1002/for.2558
WOS记录号: WOS:000474250200005
论文题名:
The impact of parameter uncertainty in insurance pricing and reserve with the temperature-related mortality model
作者: Seklecka, Malgorzata1,3; Pantelous, Athanasios A.2; O'; Hare, Colin2
通讯作者: Pantelous, Athanasios A.
刊名: JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
ISSN: 0277-6693
EISSN: 1099-131X
出版年: 2019
卷: 38, 期:4, 页码:327-345
语种: 英语
英文关键词: actuarial pricing ; forecasting methodologies ; model risk ; reserve ; temperature-related mortality model ; uncertainty
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Management
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
英文摘要:

Changes in mortality rates have an impact on the life insurance industry, the financial sector (as a significant proportion of the financial markets is driven by pension funds), governmental agencies, and decision makers and policymakers. Thus the pricing of financial, pension and insurance products that are contingent upon survival or death and which is related to the accuracy of central mortality rates is of key importance. Recently, a temperature-related mortality (TRM) model was proposed by Seklecka et al. (Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 36(7), 824-841), and it has shown evidence of outperformance compared with the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87, 659-671) model and several others of its extensions, when mortality-experience data from the UK are used. There is a need for awareness, when fitting the TRM model, of model risk when assessing longevity-related liabilities, especially when pricing long-term annuities and pensions. In this paper, the impact of uncertainty on the various parameters involved in the model is examined. We demonstrate a number of ways to quantify model risk in the estimation of the temperature-related parameters, the choice of the forecasting methodology, the structures of actuarial products chosen (e.g., annuity, endowment and life insurance), and the actuarial reserve. Finally, several tables and figures illustrate the main findings of this paper.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141542
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Zurich Insurance Grp Ltd, Grp Accumulat Management, Fareham, England
2.Monash Univ, Monash Business Sch, Dept Econometr & Business Stat, 20 Chancellors Walk,Wellington Rd, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia
3.Univ Liverpool, Dept Math Sci, Liverpool, Merseyside, England

Recommended Citation:
Seklecka, Malgorzata,Pantelous, Athanasios A.,O',et al. The impact of parameter uncertainty in insurance pricing and reserve with the temperature-related mortality model[J]. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING,2019-01-01,38(4):327-345
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