globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/agronomy9070397
WOS记录号: WOS:000478660500039
论文题名:
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming
作者: Sgubin, Giovanni1; Swingedouw, Didier1; de Cortazar-Atauri, Inaki Garcia2; Ollat, Nathalie3; van Leeuwen, Cornelis3
通讯作者: Sgubin, Giovanni
刊名: AGRONOMY-BASEL
ISSN: 2073-4395
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; Vitis vinifera L ; general circulation model ; EURO-CORDEX ; phenological model
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; GRAPEVINE PHENOLOGY ; WINE PRODUCTION ; TEMPERATURE ; SCENARIOS ; VERAISON ; QUALITY ; WEIGHT ; TRENDS ; CORDEX
WOS学科分类: Agronomy ; Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向: Agriculture ; Plant Sciences
英文摘要:

A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale "cold waves" may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models-including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse-with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141550
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Bordeaux, EPOC, F-33615 Pessac, France
2.INRA, Agroclim US1116, F-84914 Avignon, France
3.Univ Bordeaux, EGFV, Bordeaux Sci Agro, INRA,ISVV, F-33882 Villenave Dornon, France

Recommended Citation:
Sgubin, Giovanni,Swingedouw, Didier,de Cortazar-Atauri, Inaki Garcia,et al. The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming[J]. AGRONOMY-BASEL,2019-01-01,9(7)
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