globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006
论文题名:
Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977
作者: A S Sahana; Subimal Ghosh; Auroop Ganguly; Raghu Murtugudde
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-05-08
卷: 10, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over India and has a significant influence on the country's gross domestic product through the agricultural sector. Onset of the ISMR displays substantial interannual variability and controls the crop calendar and hence the agricultural output. This variability is traditionally linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific SST underwent a regime shift during 1976/77. We report a prominent delay in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset following the regime shift. The onset dates are computed with the Hydrologic Onset and Withdrawal Index, based on vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (AS). The shift in onset is found to be due to the change in moisture availability over the AS. A delay in the development of easterly vertical shear reduces northward-propagating intraseasonal variability during May–June, limiting the moisture supply from the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) to the AS. This, along with enhanced precipitation over the IO during the pre-monsoon, drives a reduction in moisture availability over the AS region from pre- to post-1976/77, delaying the ISM onset in recent decades. Our findings highlight the need for the re-assessment of the crop calendar in India, which is now based on the mean onset date computed from long-term data, without considering the regime shift or trends in onset.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14168
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai—400076, India;Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai—400076, India;Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai—400076, India;Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai—400076, India;Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA02115, USA;Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai—400076, India;Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC)/DOAS, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Recommended Citation:
A S Sahana,Subimal Ghosh,Auroop Ganguly,et al. Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(5)
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