globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054018
论文题名:
Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India
作者: Nirupam Karmakar; Arindam Chakraborty; Ravi S Nanjundiah
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-05-22
卷: 10, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20–60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3–9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054018
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14180
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India;Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India;Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India;Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India;Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India

Recommended Citation:
Nirupam Karmakar,Arindam Chakraborty,Ravi S Nanjundiah. Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(5)
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