globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064011
论文题名:
Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge: a case study of Typhoon Haiyan
作者: Izuru Takayabu; Kenshi Hibino; Hidetaka Sasaki; Hideo Shiogama; Nobuhito Mori; Yoko Shibutani; Tetsuya Takemi
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-06-11
卷: 10, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Effects of climate change on the worst case scenario of a storm surge induced by a super typhoon in the present climate are investigated through the case study of Typhoon Haiyan. We present the results of our investigation on super-typhoon Haiyan by using a super high resolution (1 km grid) regional model that explicitly handles cloud microphysical processes. As the parent model, we adopted the operational weekly ensemble experiments (60 km grid) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and compared experiments using sea surface temperatures and atmospheric environmental parameters from before the beginning of anthropogenic climate change (150 years ago) with those using observed values throughout the typhoon. We were able not only to represent the typhoon's intensity but also to evaluate the influences of climate change on worst case storm surges in the Gulf of Leyte due to a typhoon with high robustness. In 15 of 16 ensemble experiments, the intensity of the simulated worst case storm in the actual conditions was stronger than that in a hypothetical natural condition without historical anthropogenic forcing during the past 150 years. The intensity of the typhoon is translated to a disaster metric by simulating the storm surge height by using a shallow-water long-wave model. The result indicates that the worst case scenario of a storm surge in the Gulf of Leyte may be worse by 20%, though changes in frequency of such events are not accounted for here.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064011
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14198
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan;University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan;Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan;National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan;Tottori University, Tottori 680-8550, Japan;Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Izuru Takayabu,Kenshi Hibino,Hidetaka Sasaki,et al. Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge: a case study of Typhoon Haiyan[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(6)
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