| 英文摘要: | Because the radiative forcing is rarely computed separately when performing climate model simulations, several alternative methods have been developed to estimate both the instantaneous (or direct) forcing and the adjusted forcing. The adjusted forcing accounts for the radiative impact arising from the adjustment of climate variables to the instantaneous forcing, independent of any surface warming. Using climate model experiments performed for CMIP5, we find the adjusted forcing for 4 × CO2 ranges from roughly 5.5–9 W m−2 in current models. This range is shown to be consistent between different methods of estimating the adjusted forcing. Decomposition using radiative kernels and offline double-call radiative transfer calculations indicates that the spread receives a substantial contribution (roughly 50%) from intermodel differences in the instantaneous component of the radiative forcing. Moreover, nearly all of the spread in adjusted forcing can be accounted for by differences in the instantaneous forcing and stratospheric adjustment, implying that tropospheric adjustments to CO2 play only a secondary role. This suggests that differences in modeling radiative transfer are responsible for substantial differences in the projected climate response and underscores the need to archive double-call radiative transfer calculations of the instantaneous forcing as a routine diagnostic. |