globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075005
论文题名:
Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe
作者: Marcello Donatelli; Amit Kumar Srivastava; Gregory Duveiller; Stefan Niemeyer; Davide Fumagalli
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-07-17
卷: 10, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075005
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14237
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, CRA-CIN, Via di Corticella 133, 40128 Bologna, Italy;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115, Bonn, Germany;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

Recommended Citation:
Marcello Donatelli,Amit Kumar Srivastava,Gregory Duveiller,et al. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(7)
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