globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084020
论文题名:
Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies
作者: Huan Zhang; Naiming Yuan; Jan Esper; Johannes P Werner; Elena Xoplaki; Ulf Büntgen; Kerstin Treydte; Jürg Luterbacher
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-08-18
卷: 10, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Long term memory (LTM) scaling behavior in worldwide tree-ring proxies and subsequent climate reconstructions is analyzed for and compared with the memory structure inherent to instrumental temperature and precipitation data. Detrended fluctuation analysis is employed to detect LTM, and its scaling exponent α is used to evaluate LTM. The results show that temperature and precipitation reconstructions based on ring width measurements (mean $\alpha =0.8$) contain more memory than records based on maximum latewood density (mean $\alpha =0.7$). Both exceed the memory inherent to regional instrumental data ($\alpha =0.6$ for temperature, $\alpha =0.5$ for precipitation) in the time scales ranging from 1 year up to 50 years. We compare memory-free ($\alpha =0.5$) pseudo-instrumental precipitation data with pseudo-reconstructed precipitation data with LTM ($\alpha \gt 0.5$), and demonstrate the biasing influences of LTM on climate reconstructions. We call for attention to statistical analysis with regard to the variability of proxy-based chronologies or reconstructions, particularly with respect to the contained (i) trends, (ii) past warm/cold period and wet/dry periods; and (iii) extreme events.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084020
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14258
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, D-35390, Giessen, Germany;Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, D-35390, Giessen, Germany;Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany;Department of Earth Science and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway;Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, D-35390, Giessen, Germany;Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland;Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic;Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, D-35390, Giessen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Huan Zhang,Naiming Yuan,Jan Esper,et al. Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(8)
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