This paper adds to the literature on the determinants of international migration. First, we offer a joint analysis of the driving forces of migration capturing year-to-year variations and long-run effects. Second, we analyze the dynamic response of migration to shocks to its determinants.
We start by presenting a theoretical model that allows us to model migration as an augmented gravity equation. We then construct a rich panel data set with 16 destination and 198 origin countries between 1980 and 2015. We find that climate variables are important drivers of migration flows in our sample.
We then estimate a panel vectorautoregressive model showing that the dynamic response of migration is very different across shocks to different driving forces. These findings add to the discussion about the effects of climate shocks on mobility and the concept of trapped population. Our findings carry implications for national and international immigration policies.