全球变化知识资源中心

We asked readers of Science, Nature and Harvard Business Review about their expectations for advances in science, technology, and business over a 35-year time horizon. We asked further about their needs and dreams for technical products, and their forecasts of converging industries. A fourth survey, fielded later to experts in technology forecasting and science policy, yielded assessments of the earlier survey results as well as the experts' own views on the advances, needs, and convergence questions. A combined analysis of the four surveys leads to this paper's portrait of the expected scientific and business environments 35 years hence, and a description of the gaps between expected developments in science, technology and business on the one hand, and market and social needs on the other hand. Years between 2018 and 2053 will bring significant benefits from the convergence of biomedicine and computer science. They will bring challenges and changes to the agriculture and education sectors. Surveyed experts believe many of the areas of greatest social need, including dealing with climate change, are those that businesses are least prepared to respond to.