globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000471621900001
论文题名:
Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain
作者: Lohre, Erik1,2; Juanchich, Marie3; Sirota, Miroslav3; Teigen, Karl Halvor1,4; Shepherd, Theodore G.5
通讯作者: Lohre, Erik
刊名: WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
ISSN: 1948-8327
EISSN: 1948-8335
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:3, 页码:565-575
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Social Science ; Climate prediction ; Forecasting ; Communications ; decision making ; Risk assessment
WOS关键词: I AM 70-PERCENT ; COMMUNICATIVE CONSEQUENCES ; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ; 60-PERCENT PROBABILITY ; INTERNAL EXPRESSIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; ACCURACY ; NUMERACY ; PRECISION ; JUDGMENTS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as "objectively" certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating "subjective" uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142678
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作者单位: 1.Simula Res Lab, Oslo, Norway
2.Inland Norway Univ Appl Sci, Dept Psychol, Lillehammer, Norway
3.Univ Essex, Dept Psychol, Colchester, Essex, England
4.Univ Oslo, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway
5.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

Recommended Citation:
Lohre, Erik,Juanchich, Marie,Sirota, Miroslav,et al. Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain[J]. WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,2019-01-01,11(3):565-575
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